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Quick summary:
John and I have clinched playoffs (homonyms of the world unite)
Collin, Alec, and Chris are "win-and-in" and clinch playoffs by going 2-0 or 1-1 this week. None of them are fully guaranteed for the playoffs if they go 0-2.
At least one of Ben and Jen must make the playoffs, but cannot guarantee it even by going 2-0, and are dependent on tiebreakers
Sean, Austin, Paul, Emil, Connor are eliminated, sorry bros
Here's a link to a spreadsheet with interactive scenarios, don't tell my boss I put this together instead of working this morning: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DR_2OEp5jg_PNFnayk-jShkwEoYfOm-pZ4TCwUJXSEM/edit?usp=sharing
Everything below this point is copy-pasted from ChatGPT so it might not be completely accurate, but it looked decent to me after some fact-checking.
Below are exact, explicit scenario lists for each contingent team (Collin, Alec, Chris, Ben, Jen). I used only the records and season points you gave and the exact league rules; I did not make probabilistic assumptions. For every “tied-wins” case I state the current points gap and describe the weekly point swing required to flip that tiebreaker (phrased so it’s actionable: e.g. “must outscore X by >Y points this week to win the tiebreaker”).
Notation / quick rules I used
Team record shown as current wins (max) where max = current + 2 (0–2 this week is possible).
When I say “if tied on wins with TEAM, you must outscore them by >N this week” I mean: based on current season totals, TEAM leads/lags by N now; to flip the season-points tiebreaker you must change that gap by more than N this week’s scoring.
I treat all win/tie combinations that are mathematically possible given current wins ± 0/1/2 this week.
I do not assume any particular weekly scores — I only give the necessary point swings to win tiebreakers.
1) Collin (D1) — current 16 (max 18) — season points 1408.00
Guarantee by own result: If Collin finishes ≥17 wins (i.e., goes 1–1 or 2–0) he is mathematically guaranteed a playoff berth (under the conservative clinch test). 0–2 (finish 16) does not guarantee.
Who can finish equal to Collin for each possible final total — and tiebreak margins
If Collin finishes 18 (2–0): teams that can also finish 18: John (no — John is 17 max 19 actually can be 19), more relevant: John/Jon/Alec/Chris can reach 18.
Tiebreak gaps (current rival_points − Collin_points):
John: −4.59 → John is 4.59 points behind Collin now. If Collin and John finish tied on wins, Collin holds the tiebreaker unless John outscored Collin by >4.59 this week.
Jon: +95.19 → Jon leads Collin by 95.19 now. Jon would have to be outscored by Collin by >95.19 to lose the tiebreaker.
Alec: −30.61 → Alec trails Collin by 30.61 now. Alec would need to outscore Collin by >30.61 to overtake him.
Chris: +31.32 → Chris leads Collin by 31.32 now. Collin must outscore Chris by >31.32 to beat him on points if wins tie.
(Summary: at 18 Collin is strong; to lose any tied-win tiebreaker vs Chris he must outscore Chris by >31.32; vs Jon he’d need a very large swing >95.19.)
If Collin finishes 17 (1–1): teams who can also be 17: John (17), Jon (17), Alec (could reach 17), Chris (could reach 17). Same point gaps apply as above. If Collin ties John (both 17), Collin holds tiebreaker unless John outscores Collin by >4.59; if he ties Chris he must outscore Chris by >31.32, etc.
If Collin finishes 16 (0–2): other teams who can finish 16: Jen, Alec, Chris, Ben (Ben and Jen would reach 16 only if they go 2–0). Current point gaps (rival − Collin):
Jen: −13.99 → Jen is 13.99 points behind Collin now. If tied, Collin keeps tiebreaker unless Jen outscored him by >13.99.
Alec: −30.61 → Alec trails Collin by 30.61 now. Alec must outscore Collin by >30.61 to win tiebreaker.
Chris: +31.32 → Chris leads Collin by 31.32 now. Collin must outscore Chris by >31.32 to win that tiebreaker.
Ben: +12.89 → Ben leads Collin by 12.89 now; Collin would need to outscore Ben by >12.89 to reverse it.
Concrete condition to make the playoffs at 16: When Collin finishes 16, the only way he can be displaced from the 6-team field is if six other teams finish with ≥16 wins. The teams that could be ≥16 (besides John and Jon who already are ≥17) are Alec (16→18), Chris (16→18), Ben (14→16), Jen (14→16). Therefore Collin at 16 will be out only if BOTH Ben and Jen go 2–0 (reaching 16), and tiebreakers (season points) fall against Collin in the multi-team tie. In short: Collin at 16 is in unless both Ben and Jen go 2–0 (and an unlucky points resolution occurs vs Chris/Alec). If either Ben or Jen fails to reach 16, Collin at 16 makes the cut (subject to normal tiebreak outcomes noted above).
2) Alec (D2) — current 16 (max 18) — season points 1377.39
Guarantee by own result: Alec needs at least one win (finish 17 or 18) to be mathematically guaranteed a playoff berth. A 0–2 (finish 16) does not guarantee.
Who can finish equal to Alec for each possible final total — and tiebreak margins
If Alec finishes 18 (2–0) or 17 (1–1): potential equals: John, Collin, Jon, Chris (as applicable). Current point gaps (rival − Alec):
John: 26.02 → John leads Alec by 26.02 now. If tied on wins, Alec must outscore John this week by >26.02 to win the tiebreaker.
Collin: 30.61 → Collin leads Alec by 30.61 now. Alec would need to outscore Collin by >30.61 to overtake him.
Jon: 125.80 → Jon leads Alec by 125.80 now — a very large cushion.
Chris: 61.93 → Chris leads Alec by 61.93 now.
(So Alec is behind on season points vs John/Collin/Chris; to win head-to-head tiebreakers he must outscore them by those amounts.)
If Alec finishes 16 (0–2): possible equals: Collin, Jen, Chris, Ben. Gaps (rival − Alec) now:
Collin: 30.61 (Collin ahead)
Jen: 16.62 (Jen ahead by 16.62)
Chris: 61.93 (Chris ahead)
Ben: 43.50 (Ben ahead)
Concrete condition to make playoffs at 16: If Alec stays at 16, the six-team cutoff could include John (17), Jon (17), Chris (16+ possible), Collin (16), Ben (maybe 16), Jen (maybe 16). For Alec to make it at 16 he must either win tiebreakers on points (i.e., outscore Collin/Chris/Ben/Jen by the amounts above if they tie) or at least one of the teams that could reach or exceed 16 must fail to do so (for example if Ben or Jen do not go 2–0). Because Alec is currently behind Collin/Chris/Ben/Jen on points, Alec at 16 will often need to outscore those rivals this week by the listed amounts to win tiebreakers.
3) Chris (D3) — current 16 (max 18) — season points 1439.32
Guarantee by own result: Chris needs at least one win (finish 17 or 18) to be mathematically guaranteed a playoff berth under the conservative test. (0–2 not guaranteed.)
Who can finish equal to Chris for each possible final total — and tiebreak margins
If Chris finishes 18 or 17: possible equals: John, Collin, Jon, Alec. Gaps (rival − Chris):
John: −35.91 → John is 35.91 points behind Chris now. If tied on wins, Chris holds tiebreaker unless John outscored him by >35.91.
Collin: −31.32 → Collin is 31.32 behind Chris now. Collin would need to outscore Chris by >31.32 to overtake.
Jon: +63.87 → Jon leads Chris by 63.87 now. Chris would need to be outscored? (to flip, Chris would have to outscore Jon by >63.87)
Alec: −61.93 → Alec trails Chris by 61.93 now.
If Chris finishes 16 (0–2): possible equals: Collin, Jen, Alec, Ben. Gaps (rival − Chris):
Collin: −31.32 (Collin trails)
Jen: −45.31 (Jen trails)
Alec: −61.93 (Alec trails)
Ben: −18.43 (Ben trails by 18.43)
Concrete takeaways: Chris currently sits above Collin in season points, so in any tie with Collin at equal wins Chris holds the tiebreaker unless Collin outscored him by >31.32 this week. Likewise Chris is ahead of Alec by a large margin (61.93) so Alec would need a big weekly edge to flip that tiebreaker.
4) Ben (D3) — current 14 (max 16) — season points 1420.89
Guarantee by own result: No single-week result guarantees Ben a playoff berth. Even a 2–0 (finish 16) is not a standalone guarantee because multiple other teams can reach 16+ creating tiebreak dependencies.
Who can finish equal to Ben for each possible final total — and tiebreak margins
If Ben finishes 16 (2–0): rivals who can also be 16: Collin, Jen, Alec, Chris. Gaps (rival − Ben) now:
Collin: −12.89 → Collin trails Ben by 12.89 now. If tied on wins, Ben holds the tiebreaker unless Collin outscored him by >12.89.
Jen: −26.88 → Jen trails Ben by 26.88 now.
Alec: −43.50 → Alec trails Ben by 43.50 now.
Chris: +18.43 → Chris leads Ben by 18.43 now; Ben would need to outscore Chris by >18.43 to flip that tiebreaker.
If Ben finishes 15 (1–1): rivals likely: Jen only; gap: Jen trails Ben by 26.88.
If Ben finishes 14 (0–2): rivals: Jen, Connor could also be 14; Connor and Jen are far behind on points (Connor −238.53, Jen −26.88).
Concrete condition to make playoffs at 16: If Ben reaches 16, he still must beat tiebreakers vs any tied teams who also reach 16 (notably Chris currently leads Ben by 18.43; Collin and Jen are behind Ben on points). So Ben at 16 is in if he avoids a multi-team tie where Chris (or others) also finish 16 and outscore him this week. In words: Ben must either (a) get to 16 and hope Chris does not end up tied with him and/or does not outscore him by >18.43, or (b) if multiple teams tie at 16 he must win the points tiebreak vs enough teams.
5) Jen (D1) — current 14 (max 16) — season points 1394.01
Guarantee by own result: No single-week result guarantees Jen a playoff berth. A 2–0 (16) still leaves her dependent on other results and tiebreakers.
Who can finish equal to Jen for each possible final total — and tiebreak margins
If Jen finishes 16 (2–0): rivals who can also finish 16: Collin, Alec, Chris, Ben. Gaps (rival − Jen):
Collin: +13.99 → Collin leads Jen by 13.99 now; Jen would need to outscore Collin by >13.99 to win that tiebreaker.
Alec: −16.62 → Jen leads Alec by 16.62 now; Alec would need to outscore Jen by >16.62 to overtake.
Chris: +45.31 → Chris leads Jen by 45.31 now; Jen must outscore Chris by >45.31 to flip that tiebreaker.
Ben: +26.88 → Ben leads Jen by 26.88 now.
If Jen finishes 15 (1–1): potential equal: Ben — Ben trails Jen by 26.88 points currently.
If Jen finishes 14 (0–2): possible equals: Ben, Connor; Connor is far behind on points.
Concrete condition to make playoffs at 16: If Jen reaches 16, she will be fighting tiebreakers vs Collin/Alec/Chris/Ben. Because Jen is behind Collin and especially behind Chris and Ben in season points, Jen must both go 2–0 and also either (a) have one or more of Collin/Alec/Chris/Ben fail to reach 16, or (b) outscore those rivals by the amounts shown (e.g., outscore Chris by >45.31, outscore Ben by >26.88, outscore Collin by >13.99) to win tiebreakers. That’s why Jen is very dependent on helpers: she needs 2–0 and favorable results and/or big weekly scoring advantages.
TL;DR
Collin — If you win at least once this week (1–1 or 2–0) you lock a playoff spot. If you go 0–2 you still make it unless both Ben and Jen go 2–0 (and tiebreakers go against you). If you tie on wins with Chris, you must outscore Chris by >31.32 this week to win the season-points tiebreaker; vs Alec you are ahead by 30.61 now (Alec would need to outscore you by >30.61 to flip it).
Alec — Win at least once (1–1 or 2–0) to guarantee a berth. If you stay 0–2 you must hope to outscore Collin/Chris/etc. this week by 30.61 / 61.93 points respectively to win tiebreaks.
Chris — Win at least once to guarantee a berth. If tied with Collin, Chris currently leads by 31.32 points (Collin must outscore Chris by >31.32 to flip it).
Ben — No single-week result guarantees you. If you get to 16 you still may lose tiebreak vs Chris (Ben is behind Chris by 18.43 currently), so you need both wins and favorable other results / to outscore specific rivals.
Jen — No single-week result guarantees you. To make it you really need 2–0 and either Collin/Alec/Chris/Ben to fail to reach 16 or you must outscore them by the gaps shown (e.g. outscore Collin by >13.99, outscore Chris by >45.31).
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