“Steal Score” is a number that I made up, and is calculated as a function of when the player was drafted, versus their FantasyPros ranking as of draft night. The higher the percentage, the “better” the pick.
Steal Score = (Draft position - FantasyPros rank) ÷ (FantasyPros rank)
QB: Caleb Williams, drafted 122nd (FP #66) (84.85%)
RB1: Kenneth Walker, drafted 23rd (FP #17) (35.29%)
RB2: Keaton Mitchell, drafted 180th (FP #137) (31.39%)
WR1: Drake London, drafted 30th (FP #15) (100.00%)
WR2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, drafted 9th (FP #5) (80.00%)
TE: Juwan Johnson, drafted 191st (FP #134) (42.54%)
FLEX: Justin Jefferson, drafted 18th (FP #11) (63.64%)
The math falls apart for special teams because FantasyPros doesn’t prioritize kickers or defenses, but:
DEF: Minnesota Vikings, drafted 184th (FP #198) (-7.07%)
K: Cam Little, drafted 170th (FP #209) (-18.66%)
New for 2026: a completely bulletproof mathmatical model that you can't dispute, because science.
I'm calling it the "Contextualized Hit-rate Adjusted Draft" score, or, the CHAD score.
Basically, the idea is that a player was a good pick for you -- a hit -- if:
They are your top guy at a position and have a FantasyPros positional rank in the top 12, since there's 12 of us, or...
They are your 2nd guy at a position and have a rank in the top 24, or...
Etc.
I also built in a 10% fuzziness window to account for things like Connor having Kyren Williams, FantasyPros' 13th-favorite RB, as his RB1. With total rigidity, he's not in the top 12, so he wouldn't count as a good pick. Adding the window helps make it feel more realistic by giving credit to "close enough" cases.
If a pick was a hit, it's given a value of 1. If it wasn't, 0. To get a team's total CHAD score, I calcucated a weighted average of those values, with players towards the top of the depth chart weighted more heavily. This means your RB1 and RB2 contribute more than your RB5 and RB6, for example. CHAD doesn't care about moneyball tryhard bullshit as much as it cares about loading up for a strong start, which feels pretty in line with the "Chad" ethos.
The best possible CHAD score for a whole team is, naturally, 100%, and it just so happens that we got a distribution of CHADs that works well with my classic letter-grading system:
A-tier: I see this team as a championship contender right out of the gate
B-tier: I see this team as having a good shot at making the playoffs
C-tier: I see this team as having their work cut out for them
As always keep in mind these are just for fun and I don’t actually know what the hell I’m talking about. ❤️
Okay, so: Gibbs-Swift-Henderson is nuts. Collins-Egbuka-Burden is insane. Dart is very very good. I was going to write something about Jake Ferguson being overrated due to his best performances coming when CeeDee Lamb was hurt last year, only to look up and see Trey McBride on the list.
The only possible flaw I see here is that I also picked Jahmyr Gibbs first overall in a different league, which probably means he's gonna tear everything in both legs at some point this year.
Best Pick: Jaxson Dart (8-96) might be a piece of shit coming off an injury, but that rushing QB ceiling do be crazy though.
Best Name: There's exactly 3 Tre(y)s on this team. It's the best number of Tre(y)s.
Grade: 100% CHAD. My God, she's done it. In the long and storied history of CHAD scores, there's never been a better one, nor can there ever be a better one. Picking first overall definitely helps but you can't just let facts and logic get in the way of good stories. A+
As someone who begged Brian Thomas Jr. to do basically anything at all for the majority of last year, the name "Parker Washington" still triggers me. Should be a great WR3 though, and I wouldn't be surprised if Bijan/Walker ends up as the best RB duo in the league. I am not quite sold on Pickens being able to match his totals from last year, but that's the cool thing about my analyses: I'm wrong. A lot!
I also don't know about the Jags defense long-term, but I'm calling them out here because they do play the Browns in Week 1, so that's like 30 free points right there.
Best Pick: Unironically Caleb Williams (11-122) because taking your QB1 in the double digit rounds just does something to the happy chemicals in my brain. Don't scroll down and look at my team.
Best Name: B. Robinson (RB, ATL). No, not that one.
Grade: 90.28% CHAD. It's really good, but I'm gonna knock it down a notch just because of there being too many Bears and because of my being a petty bitch. A-
I remember back in 2023 when I wrote these up and for the team that drafted Puka Nacua in the last round I just put "Who the fuck is this." How the times have changed.
I want Woody Marks to be good, so bad. He was clearly the Texans' best RB last year and every single week it was just "lol we're actually gonna just him leave on the bench now ¯\_(ツ)_/¯." So, I was disappointed to learn they brought in David Montgomery, but they do make for a good fantasy handcuff pairing. Speaking of "fantasy handcuff pairings," check out my light kink fanfiction series sometime.
Best Pick: Carnell Tate (6-70) because Cam Ward has to throw to somebody, and I can't think of the last time a rookie WR from Ohio State wasn't at least solid (Olave, Wilson, JSN, MHJ, Egbuka).
Best Name: Choosing one individual is not possible: Puka Nacua, Colston Loveland, Cam Skattebo and Woody Marks have all won this prestigious honor in the past, making this one of the most stacked name rosters I've ever seen. Back-to-back J. M(e)yers-es is a nice touch, too.
Grade: 86.71% CHAD. The only thing standing between a team like this and a surefire playoff berth is... a division containing three other good looking teams. Interestingly, the Nabers/Skattebo combo could serve to largely negate Jen's Jaxson Dart during those divisional matchups. B+
Here's a fun drinking game to play, look up the Miami Dolphins receiving depth chart right now and take a shot for every name you don't recognize.
I know, right? Who the fuck are these people?
And that's how Caleb Douglas became the #1 fantasy sleeper hit of 2026. You're welcome, Connor.
Anyway, this is another one that's about as good as you can hope for with a starting lineup. It really just depends on Bowers and Nix being able to rebound from their injuries last year (and in the case of Bowers especially, not trying to play through it like a doofus).
Best Pick: Blake Corum (8-93) not only as the backup for Kyren, but as someone who will probably have some standalone volume as the "closer" RB, since the Rams defense figures to have games locked down by the 3rd quarter this year.
Worst Name: Jonathon Brooks. Spell "Jonathan" right, you fuck.
Grade: 85.19% CHAD. Pretty much on par with Paul, which makes sense given the similar draft positions and both opening with WR/TE. Have fun in your exploding barbed-wire deathmatch of a division. B+
Y'all wanted to clown on Tucker Kraft in the first round but guess what: he's a top-12 ranked guy and first on this fantasy roster's depth chart, which officially makes that pick a Good One™ according to the CHAD system. And as a reminder, CHAD is mathematically indisputable, because it uses numbers.
The one weakness for the Week 1 lineup is definitely running back: roll your finest d3 and choose between Allen, Kamara, and Bigsby. But aside from that, Hurts is a great QB, the receivers look good (assuming the substation doesn't absorb Mike Evans' lifeforce), and there's elite K/DST in place.
Best Pick: Jaylen Warren (6-68), even though Rico Dowdle is sure to incorrectly receive a disproportionate number of touches because he is the second-most talented running back on a Mike McCarthy-coached team.
Best Name: Very obviously Trey Smack, but that entire Denzel Boston/Oronde Gadsden/Tank Bigsby stretch immediately preceding Smack is an absolutely generational run.
Grade: 72.43% CHAD. i don't have anything clever for this so uhh yeah smack me daddy C
Will my Packer fan card get revoked if I publicly admit that I don't believe in Christian Watson being able to become a consistent fantasy receiver? What about if it's just an attempted "reverse jinx" so he does really really well and stays healthy for the first time ever?
Probably doesn't matter much either way for this team with Drake London and Courtland Sutton there, who are both great. Taylor and Jeanty are a phenomenal duo, and obviously Josh Jacobs as RB3 in the 9th round could be one of the greatest value picks of all time, if it wasn't for Josh Jacobs.
Best Pick: Malik Willis (14-163) has been getting shit on by "experts" his entire career. And yes, he might have gotten sent into a bad situation, but the Packers fans here know he can ball.
Best Name: Harrison Mevis sounds like a Civil War general or 1800s US politician. Plus, his brother Andrew kicks for everybody's favorite professional football team located in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Grade: 87.05% CHAD. Fuck Josh Jacobs, F-. B
How did we collectively let Justin Jefferson slip that far, again? Signed, a guy who literally had two chances to take him and didn't. Still though, all signs point to a huge rebound year for him now that he's got a QB who can complete goal line passes in practice versus no defenders.
In general this looks like an extremely solid team. Alongside JJ, Sam LaPorta, Jayden Daniels and Xavier Worthy are likely in for some positive regression from their down seasons last year (I just looked up that Worthy had one touchdown in 2025?! Signed, the guy who drafted Matthew Golden.)
Best Pick: Hunter Henry (14-162) is a great value pick, but because fantasy football is a cruel whore, just know that between him and Mark Andrews, you will choose the wrong TE to start most weeks, and you'll like it.
Best Name: The ensemble cast of Mcs (Caffrey, Millan, Laughlin) takes this one. Also, Jajonte Jilliams, even though that's not even his actual name.
Grade: 90.96% CHAD. I guess a 90% is really an A- but I arbitrarily think this looks better than that. A
Mario Party Bonus Star: The Twinsies Star, for taking the Vikings' #18, Justin Jefferson, with pick #18. ⭐
Legal disclaimer: Mario Party Bonus Stars do not count for anything whatsoever. Arguably, nothing else in fantasy football does, either.I hope before we die or before he's out of the league we get to see what Breece Hall can do on an offense that isn't the Jets. That singular handoff he took from Aaron Rodgers before the latter's Achilles injury 3 plays later was so good. He's a great player individually IRL but the Jets are just so bad at scoring points. Last year, they had the ball and a lead for a grand total of 66 plays which is about half as many as the 31st-place team.
This starting lineup feels like it has a lot of uncertainty to me but I think the AJ Brown/Drake Maye combo is going to be really good.
Best Pick: Jalen Coker (13-152). I seem to remember him starting to pick up steam at the end of last year as he recovered from injury. A full season of him with Tet on the other side should be interesting.
Best Name: Also Jalen Coker. I'm a total Cokehead!
Grade: 69.95% CHAD. My formula was defeated by Justin Tucker not having a FantasyPros rank and therefore technically having a CHAD of negative infinity and oh my God the Jets are going to sign him, aren't they? A fitting punishment. C
Secret lore dump for people other than Sean and Paul (and maybe Connor):
John, mostly every week at our bar trivia games during football season, 2024-2025: "I fucking hate fuckass Brock Purdy so much, he always gets like exactly 14 points and it's always exactly enough for me to lose"
John, 2026: "Wanna see me do it again?"
Those are literally his exact words, verbatim. Do not attempt to fact-check this. Obviously it doesn't really matter at all anyways when Josh Allen is on the team, but I clapped when I saw it. The only weakness of this team is the long-term strength of the WR group. JSN is incredible, but Garrett Wilson is on the Jets.
Best Pick: MarShawn Lloyd (9-105) is basically a free starting RB given the Josh Jacobs situation. Personally I think he'll probably be better than a couple of the RBs drafted before him onto this team (Bucky's in a committee situation, Price is a rookie/unknown), at least in the immediate term. Also, fuck Josh Jacobs.
Best Names: There's something special about the pairing of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Two rival law firms putting their differences aside to deliver justice on the football field.
Grade: 94.84% CHAD. Not really any major holes that I can see. A
For the second year in a row I am immediately reminded post-draft why I don't love taking early round elite QBs. You guys really dropped the ball here, you were supposed to save me from myself.
Lamar is fun as hell, but I'm getting decisively mid vibes from basically everybody after that point. Here's hoping that DJ Moore becomes what Stefon Diggs became when he first joined the Bills in 2020. Also, I just Googled Mike Washington today and learned that he's very fast (very fast), so that's cool. Maybe I'll get lucky and it turns out that Ashton Jeanty actually sucks or something, I don't know.
Best Pick: Jordyn Tyson (13-154) and Tank Dell (16-183) because their beginning the season on IR allowed me to pick up my Super Secret 17th and 18th-round picks immediately following the draft, Tyler Shough and Kenyon Sadiq. I have no idea if this strategy will work out, but on the other hand, it is a thing that I realized I could do.
Best Name: KC Concepcion. He was born to play this sport. Also, the Christopher Nolan BWAAAHM sound.
Grade: 75.31% CHAD. Wait that's it? That can't be right, I made this whole shitty system up using FantasyPros data and I literally use FantasyPros to prepare for my drafts!
| CHAD doesn't care about moneyball tryhard bullshit
Oh, right. Uhhhhhhh whatever I'll make it work somehow, C+
Can't lie, I would have taken Achane if he would have made it back to me. Because, well, you know.
I also probably would have gone for a receiver at 3-35 instead of Jeremiyah Love as RB3, but that could just be because I specifically am getting Vietnam flashbacks from dealing with the litany of RB injuries on the Cardinals last year. There's a similar effect with George Kittle, who is good, but hurt 100% of the times I've ever had him.
No real holes anywhere else to speak of. I like DeVonta Smith and Isaiah Likely as guys who could really benefit from new situations, and I'm interested to see Trevor Lawrence in Year 2 of Liam Coen.
Best Pick: Rico Dowdle (8-86) who will incorrectly receive a disproportionately high amount of touches, as the second-best RB on a Mike McCarthy-coached team. But hey, volume stats win games.
Best Name: Emmett Johnson is one of the most running-backiest names I've ever heard. It sounds like it was generated by an AI trained exclusively on 90s Cowboys highlights.
Grade: 96.30% CHAD. I would probably rate this as an A+ if I weren't so personally triggered by it. A
A Brief Primer on Iconic Fantasy Football Draft Strategies
Anchor RB (2000s and prior): Workhorse RBs are the only viable early round picks, as the NFL metagame prioritized ground-and-pound offenses, and the popularity of PPR fantasy formats had yet to take off.
Zero RB (early-mid 2010s): The practice of delaying RB picks until the late-mid rounds, spurred by a combination of high-profile RB injuries and increases in NFL teams utilizing more "committee" RB packages.
Hero RB/Avoiding the Dead Zone (the year after Zero RB became virally popular and everyone realized that it only works if you're the only one in your draft room doing it): The practice of taking one workhorse RB early and relying on pass-catchers and RBBC backups to scrape up low double-digit points per week.
Farmmaxxing (2026): When your children suggest that you should acquire as many things you can find on a farm as possible.
I hate how much I don't hate how this turned out lmao
WR group is extremely good (it better be when that's 5 of the first 6 picks); Hampton is the Hero RB, with Gainwell being the sneaky consistent 10-point guy. Elite defense, two good QBs. AJ Barner isn't a good TE but I did crack up when I realized how he fit into the theme.
Best Pick: Rams DST (7-84) which feels insane...but how are they not gonna have like 15-20 points per week just from sacks and TFLs?
Best Names: yes
Grade: 70.06% CHAD. can I have some of your receivers please thanks C